The Doctrine of Chances
- Author: Abraham de Moivre
- Publication data: 1738 (2nd ed.)
- Online version: ?
- Description: The book introduced the concept of normal distributions as approximations to binomial distributions. In effect, de Moivre proved a weak version of the central limit theorem. Sometimes his result is called the theorem of de Moivre-Laplace.
- Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence
An Essay Toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances
- Author: Thomas Bayes
- Publication data: 1764
- Online version: [1] (PostScript file); [2] (PDF file)
- Description: In this paper Bayes addresses the problem of using a sequence of identical "trials" to determine the per-trial probability of "success" — the so-called inverse probability problem. It later inspired the theorem that bears his name (Bayes' theorem). See also Pierre Simon de Laplace.
- Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence
